2008 Annual Foreclosure Statistics

Here are the final closed sales numbers for 2008 foreclosures.  The Valley-wide totals are for all of Maricopa county.  The Northeast numbers are included in the Valley-wide numbers, but give a focus on the area north of the Salt River and east of I-17.

These totals represent closed sales only.  They do not reflect all the homeowners in distress.

Arizona Republic Featured Bank Owned Properties

The following are our featured Bank Owned properties for today:

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Scheduled Auctions

For the next 13 weeks (90 days), there are a total of 26,367 foreclosure sales scheduled.  That is an average of 2105 per week.  Here is a breakdown by week:

To see our latest Bank Owned Foreclosures, click here: http://thosecallaways.com/Visitor/bank_owned.php

Daily Bank Owned Report 10-07-08

Good Afternoon!  Those Callaways report that the total REO/Bank Owned properties on the Arizona Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) available for sale is 8153. Of these, there are 504 properties in the Northeast Phoenix and Scottsdale areas.  The total REO/Bank Owned properties pending and in escrow is 2643.  Of these, there are 164 properties pending and in escrow in the Northeast Phoenix/Scottsdale areas.

The following Foreclosed/Bank Owned properties have just come on the Northeast Phoenix/Scottsdale market:

Foreclosure Resales Trends

August Foreclosure resales topped 37% of overall closings on the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS).  Of the 5738 closings, 2139 were bank-owned properties.  This left 3599 non-foreclosure sales.  This percentage if bank owned sales had been growing steadily over the last 12 months.  Here are the numbers:

Where will this growing percentage stop? How long will this situation last?  These questions have no easy answers.  We do know that following these trends may give insight not available to those who don’t.

Flex MESS

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) recently changed software systems from Marketlinx to FlexMLS. ARMLS had changed systems in the past but this time they felt agents needed a grace period in which to adapt to the new more powerful (reads: hard to learn) software interface.

The solution was to stop changes to Marketlinx on July 27th but leave the system available until August 31st. From July 28th forward agents changing prices, moving actives to pendings and reporting closings that could only happen in the new Flex system.  The glitch came with continuing to allow access to the Marketlinx data for another 35 days until August 31st. The reasoning was that slow learners, late adapting agents could still get information while taking Flex classes.

The plan sounded good but we now know it created a very dumb month of August. Given the opportunity to not learn, many agents procrastinated and continued to access Marketlinx which was now frozen in time. The consequences are difficult to measure but here are the things Those Callaways experienced as early adopters and agents with a large inventory of listings.

The first thing that happened on July 28th was that our listings would disappear then reappear for no reason. Photos would go away and we would reload them. Listings not yet activated vanished forever and we had to re-input everything.

By Monday August 1st we had all our internal problems solved only to discover that Flex and Realtor.com were not communicating. That entire week we watched Az Central Real Estate go down and come back. Flex itself reported massive data recovery efforts and various fixes as problems came up.

By Monday August 8th we thought we were out of the woods. That’s when we started getting the calls that told us of the greater problem. For example an agent called and wanted to know why our listing on which our seller had just accepted a contract from her buyer was not showing pending on MLS. We told her it was pending and she said it was not. After several calls we discovered she was still on Marketlinx which was unchangeable since July 27th. She said okay, then she said change it on Marketlinx, we told her we couldn’t and the beat went on. Whether this agent ever made the switch we don’t know.

Another example – we had a client call saying her listing was not on MLS yet. Several exchanges later we figured out that our client’s best friend was an agent in Apache Junction and she was just sure her friend’s new listing wasn’t showing up yet. Again we asked and again the answer came – still using Marketlinx.

Finally, we loaded several listings in August which should have had immediate showings. Nothing happened.  Nothing that is, until September 1st when showings started to come back. Hopefully all the currently active agents, and we may have lost a few over this, are now able to use the new Flex system. Flex is a great improvement. Let’s just hope that the gap period created no permanent damage.

Daily Bank Owned Report 09-12-08

Good Afternoon!  Those Callaways report that the total REO/Bank Owned properties on the Arizona Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) available for sale is 7186. Of these, there are 453 properties in the Northeast Phoenix and Scottsdale areas.  The total REO/Bank Owned properties pending and in escrow is 3001.  Of these, there are 159 properties pending and in escrow in the Northeast Phoenix/Scottsdale areas.

The following Foreclosed/Bank Owned properties have just come on the Northeast Phoenix/Scottsdale market:

Foreclosures - A Growing Opportunity

Good Afternoon,

There is a dramatic change taking place in the Central Arizona real estate market with respect to foreclosures. Total sales of bank owned properties (aka REO’s) as reported each month represent the culmination of an oftentimes lengthy process, one that each of these homes has gone through.  

First, the homeowner finds themselves unable to make the current mortgage payment. Some of these owners find a solution and are able to catch up and become current again.

Second, once the homeowner is anywhere from 3 to 6 months (sometimes more) behind, a foreclosure notice is filed setting a sale or auction date.  During this period some homes are redeemed (brought current) and some are sold through a short sale process where the lender agrees to accept less than the balance owed providing the homeowner receives no proceeds at closing.

Third, the home is sold at auction. Sometimes an investor bids on the property, but most often in the current market, the only bidder is the bank who holds the mortgage. Once the bank owns the property it must go through an evaluation process, remaining occupants must be dealt with and then the property is listed with a real estate agent. Finally the real estate agent markets the property until a buyer is found and the property closes.

One can see in the following chart that the monthly closings represent only those homes which have completed all these steps. They do not reflect all the homeowners and mortgages in distress.


To view this data in graph form: http://thoseforeclosures.com/blog/?p=86

Straw Hats in Winter

A hundred years ago, in a time when men wore hats and ladies didn’t wear white shoes after Labor Day, there lived a man named Bernard Baruch.  Sort of Warren Buffet of his day, he was fabulously wealthy from wise investments in the stock market.  He was a close confidant to several U.S. Presidents and was often quoted for he had a way with words.  One day a reporter asked his best investment advice and he replied, “Buy straw hats in winter for in spring they will surely sell.”

Today, our real estate market is in deep winter.  Whether this is the beginning, middle or end of our cold season varies with which expert you consult.  We may have yet to hit the bottom or we may be on the upswing and not even know it.  The reality is that peaks and valleys in a real estate market are only clearly recognized six to twelve months after the fact.  What we do know is that the fluff is gone and bargains abound.  Now is the time to buy.

In fact, this buyers market may well be remembered as the perfect winter storm as three real estate weather fronts collide.

  • On the supply front there are over 55,000 homes total for sale on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service). The selection is huge.
  • On the demand front monthly sales dropped to 3,500 homes in September and remains over 40% below 2006 levels.  Sellers must compete for buyers and pricing is flexible.
  • On the credit front 30 year fixed rates remain around 6%.  Understandably the mortgage industry has retreated from sub prime (anybody can buy a house) lending. But folks with a down payment, a job and a decent credit score can still get a very attractive loan.

When you combine these powerful forces of selection, flexible prices and excellent terms this becomes the perfect buyers market storm.

And when is our springtime? Will it surely come?

People continue to pour into Arizona at a rate of 9,000 every month.  That’s over 100,000 each year. Our economy becomes more diversified each day.  Good jobs keep opening up. Freeways continue to be built.  Malls and condos are under construction.  Look at the giant cranes filling our horizons.  Yes, our spring will surely come.  The first signs may be eluding us now.  For it is only with the full flush of fresh blossoms and birds singing that we realize winter is past.

Ours is strong and resilient market with huge growth ahead.  Our spring will surely come and we should all be buying straw hats today.